23 01 2009- - New U.S. Administration’s policy on ‘genocide’ to affect Turkey-Armenia relations

- New U.S. Administration’s policy on ‘genocide’ to affect Turkey-Armenia relations 23.01.09 09:06
Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 23 /corr. Trend News E.Tariverdiyeva / This year can become the year of normalization of the relations between Turkey and Armenia, and the policy of the new American Administration regarding “genocide” will affect these relations, however, not compulsorily negatively, experts consider.
“Incorrect step by the USA can damage the process of normalizing the relations between Armenia and Turkey”, said last week the Foreign Minister of Turkey Ali Babajan, writes the Turkish Hurriyet Daily News newspaper reported. During his pre-election campaign, the U.S. President Barack Obama, who took the office on Jan.20, qualified the events of 1915 in Ottoman Empire as
genocide.

Being appointed to the post of the Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton noted that the new U.S. Administration will be sequential in this question.
During
the election campaign Clinton unambiguously determined the position regarding “genocide”. “I believe that the tragic events, organized and realized by the Ottoman Empire against the Armenian population, will force the Congress and the U.S. President to recognize and remember the genocide of Armenians,” Clinton said during the presidential campaign last summer. After this, the statement by the Foreign Ministry of Turkey warned the new U. S. Administration against the recognition of the “genocide” of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during the First World War, saying that “to consider the position of third country in this question is irrational”. The diplomatic relations are absent between Armenia and Turkey. In 1993 Turkey closed borders with Armenia in connection with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in which it supports Azerbaijan. On Sep. 6, 2008 at the invitation of the President of Armenia Serj Sargsyan, the President of Turkey Abdullah Gul arrived in Yerevan to watch the football match between the teams of Armenia and Turkey.

According to the observers, America’s interference in the issue of recognition of “genocide” will affect the Turkish-Armenian relations, however not negatively. The new U.S. Administration or its part supports Armenia in the problem of “genocide”, and this strengthens the position of Armenia in the world, also, in the Armenian-Turkish relations, said Russian political scientist Mikhail Remizov. According to him, improvement in the relations of Yerevan and Washington under strengthening of the lobbying positions of Armenia in the USA and, on the other hand, cooling of relations between Turkey and USA as a result can lead to changes and cause an improvement in the relations of Yerevan and Ankara. “Since Turkey ceases to be the protege of the USA in the region, it must transform into regional leader, and for this, Turkey must solve all questions with Armenia,” Remizov, director of the Institute of National Strategy, told

TrendNews.

After Barack Obama takes the office of the U.S. President, it needs to expect “real breakthrough” in the issue of Congress’s adoption of a resolution on recognition of “genocide” of the Armenians, said the director of the Armenian Institute of Oriental Study of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Ruben Safrastyan, Mediamax reported. “Certain positive changes are possible in the Armenian-Turkish relations during this year,” said Safrastyan. “These will mainly be caused by how Turkish diplomacy will be able to give up its policy of pressure on Armenia and gradually will begin to approach the position of Armenia, exactly the establishment of relations without any pre-
conditions,” he told journalists on Wednesday. Turkey advances a number of pre-conditions for establishing bilateral relations, in particular Armenia’s refusal from the policy of the international
recognition of “genocide” of the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during the First World War, and also Armenia’s recognition of Turkey’s borders. According to the Turkish political scientist Sinan Ogan, precisely the loyalty of the American Administration to the question of “genocide” will accelerate the process of establishing relations between Turkey and Armenia. America tries to establish Turkish-Armenian relations, without acting asmediator, since it fears to spoil its relations with Ankara, Ogan said. “Obama’s Administration is prepared to recognize the fact of “genocide”, and therefore Turkey will attempt to establish relations with Armenia before the fact of “genocide” is recognized in the White House,” Ogan, director of theTurksam Center for Scientific Studies, told TrendNews in a telephone conversation from Istanbul.
Russian political scientist also considers that Turkey, as the strong side of dialogue, in light of worsening in the relations with the USA can think moreconstructively than earlier with regards the same theme of genocide. “Possibly there are some intermediate versions between the single-valued recognition and the categorical denial, and they can be begun to operate,” said Remizov.

According to him, simple step is the initiation of the establishment of a commission for the more detailed study of the question. “Establishing a commission on the joint of historical science and diplomacy can put the beginning of a constructive dialogue and will help the sides not connect the current political relation with this question rigidly,” Remizov said. American political scientist Mark N. Katz considers that Turkey and Armenia can improve relations soon. “For Turkey, this is something that would improve its image in the West, and thus help its chances for entry into the EU,” Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University, told TrendNews via e-mail.

According to Katz, the August events testified that Armenia's tight alliance with Russia is not necessarily in Armenia's interest. “Armenia needs more friends, including Turkey, so that it does not have to rely so heavily on Russia,” he said.
Large-scale military operations were launched in South Ossetia at night of 8 ugust. Georgian troops entered Tskhinvali, capital of South Ossetia. Later Russian troops seized the town and drove Georgian troops back to Georgia. On 26 August, Russia recognized independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and established diplomatic relations on 9 September. “In this dialogue precisely Turkey is the strong side, precisely it is interested in solving this problem in order to strengthen its regional nfluence, whereas Armenia is extremely vulnerable,” said Remizov. R.Agayev (Moscow), B.Hasanov (Baku) contributed to the article.

G.C.